EAST AND WEST

The progress of Ukraine’s counter-offensive has not met its desired pace, facing immense difficulties in the south. Suggestions that Ukraine should adopt “proper” Western tactics reveal ignorance of military realities. A leaked assessment by the German military criticized Kyiv for not applying lessons from Western training, but the situation is more complex.

US General Mark Milley highlighted the daunting task facing Ukraine: an advance across minefields toward well-fortified positions, all while Russia re-seeds the mines. Compounding the challenge, Ukraine relies on inexperienced recruits, integrating Western equipment and shifting away from Soviet models.

Surprisingly, Ukrainian forces with outdated equipment have had more success around Bakhmut than those with new Western gear. Russia puts significant effort into thwarting Kyiv’s push towards the Sea of Azov, planting numerous mines per square meter, obscured by new summer growth.

The counter-offensive, ongoing since early June, compelled Ukraine to shift from a vehicle-led assault to a more infantry-centric approach, better suited to their strengths and coordination abilities.

Although Russian forces have shown fragility, significant military changes take months to develop and may not guarantee success. Attempting to break Russian lines further north presents risks, including exposed flanks and vulnerable logistic tails.

The coming “rasputitsa” will impede movement with cloying mud, hindering significant shifts in front lines this year. If the conflict remains stalemated, external supporters of Ukraine may face domestic pressure, both in favor and against more involvement.

As the 2024 US presidential election looms, the issue of support for Ukraine will likely become even more contentious in US politics.

In conclusion, Ukraine’s counter-offensive faces substantial challenges, necessitating adaptations on the battlefield and politically. The conflict’s implications reach beyond military matters and will influence international support and domestic politics for both Ukraine and its external backers.