EAST AND WEST

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz articulated one of his most far-reaching assessments of contemporary Russia since taking office. Speaking in interviews and public appearances within the span of a few days, Merz diplayed deep pessimism about the Russian state.

In an interview published on 19 February by regional German media, Merz said he sees little prospect for a normalization of relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the foreseeable future. His reasoning was not framed in terms of short-term diplomatic disagreements, but rather as a structural judgment about how power currently functions in Russia. According to Merz, the country’s ruling elite appears unable to disengage from war without destabilizing itself internally.

The chancellor argued that the continuation of military conflict is not only driven by external ambitions, but also by domestic constraints. He pointed to the scale of Russia’s mobilization and the long-term consequences of reintegrating large numbers of wounded and traumatized soldiers into civilian life. In his view, the absence of a credible post-war strategy reinforces the regime’s reliance on an ongoing war economy and permanent mobilization.

Merz expressed skepticism that negotiations could quickly bring the war in Ukraine to an end. Rather than expecting a breakthrough through dialogue, he suggested that the conflict is more likely to conclude through exhaustion—military, economic, or both—on one side or the other. Appeals based on humanitarian considerations or rational cost–benefit arguments, he added, have so far shown little effect on the Kremlin’s decision-making.

Merz emphasized that the objective of European efforts is not escalation for its own sake, but to limit Russia’s capacity to wage war—both in military terms and through economic means. Within this framework, sanctions, financial restrictions, and support for Ukraine are treated less as moral gestures than as instruments intended to shape material constraints.

Just days earlier, at the Munich Security Conference, Merz had struck a more cautious tone on the question of dialogue. While acknowledging that meaningful negotiations currently appear unlikely, he stated that Germany remains open to talks if and when there are signs of genuine readiness on the Russian side.

Merz invoked the 19th-century French observer Astolphe de Custine, who famously described Russia as a place where “the deepest barbarism coexists with the highest civilization.” Merz applied this formulation to the present, stating that, in his assessment, Russia is currently in a phase of “deep barbarism” that is unlikely to change in the near term.

The German Chancellor returned to this theme on 23 February at a public event in Berlin marking the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Merz elaborated on what he called Russia’s enduring “ambivalence.” While sharply criticizing the conduct of the war, he explicitly acknowledged Russia’s contributions to world culture, citing its art, music, literature, and intellectual traditions as examples of what he termed “the highest civilization.”